NEW DELHI: India is likely to see the world’s biggest rise in energy demand this decade – climbing 3 per cent annually – due to urbanisation and industrialisation.
While the push for renewable energywill see the country meeting as much as 60 per cent of the growth in demand for power, coal will continue to meet a third of overallenergy demandby 2030 and another quarter will be met by oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook.
“Indiabecomes the world’s most populous country by 2025 and, combined with the twin forces of urbanisation and industrialisation, this underpins rapid growth in energy demand, which rises by more than 3 per cent per year in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) from 2021 to 2030,”the IEAsaid.
Even though India continues to make great strides with renewables deployment and efficiency policies, the sheer scale of its development means that the combined import bill for fossil fuels doubles over the next two decades, with oil by far the largest component.
“Pressures in markets predated Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but Russia’s actions have turned a rapid economic recovery from the pandemic – which strained all manner of global supply chains, including energy – into full-blown energy turmoil,” it said.
In India, coal meets a third of growth with demand rising above 770 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) by 2030, and continuing thereafter before peaking in the early 2030s.
Oil demand meets a further quarter of the energy demand growth and rises to nearly 7 million barrels per day by 2030 from 4.7 million bpd in 2021.
Coal generation is projected to continue to expand in absolute terms, peaking around 2030, though its share of electricity generation falls from just below 75 per cent to 55 per cent over this period.
Renewables meet more than 60 per cent of the growth in demand for power, and account for 35 per cent of the electricity mix by 2030 — solar PV alone accounts for more than 15 per cent.
In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), more rapid progress in deploying low-emission alternatives in power, industry and transport sectors in particular puts India on a trajectory in line with its goal of netzero emissions by 2070.
The IEA projected India’s oil demand to rise from 4.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 6.7 million bpd by 2030 and 7.4 million bpd by 2040 in STEPS. Under APS, the demand is projected to rise to 5.9 million bpd in 2030 before falling to 5.4 million bpd in 2040 and further to 3.9 million bpd in 2050.
Coal demand rises by 25 per cent to 2030. “Strong economic growth – the economy expands 90 per cent between 2021 and 2030 – brings with it more demand for coal-fired power generation and in the use of coal to produce iron and steel and cement.”
India became the world’s secondlargest coal producer in 2021 (in energy terms), overtaking Australia and Indonesia, and it plans to increase domestic production by more than 100 Mtce from current levels to 2025.
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