AT a time when elected democracies are under constant threat from crossorder terrorism, the rise of radical Islam and aggressive designs of totalitarian China, India under Prime Minster Narendra Modi is emerging as fulcrum of global efforts to counter them.
General elections in the US, India, Taiwan and Britain will shape the contours of an increasingly fraught world order in 2024. In the midst of intense domestic political competition with these democracies, the Government headed by PM Modi is the only one which is sure of being returned to power for another five-year term. Taiwan goes to the polls in January 2024. Anti-China President Tsai Ing-wen has already served two four-year terms. Now, she is ineligible to contest.
Unlike the autocratic Chinese President Xi Jinping, who declared himself President for Life by amending the Chinese Communist Party’s Constitution, Tsai will step aside in democratic Taiwan this January. Months later, in April 2024, India will hold a decisive Lok Sabha election with PM Modi aiming for a historic third consecutive term.
On November 5 next year, deeply polarised Americans will choose between incumbent US President Joe Biden and former US President Donald Trump. Weeks later, Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party will face a British electorate weary of declining living standards, high energy costs and buyers’ remorse over Brexit that has crippled essential services.
These four elections will set the course for global politics in 2024 and beyond. India’s PM Modi is far ahead of his rivals in popularity at home. On the global front also, India has enhanced its stature and PM Modi has a personal rapport with leaders of the US, the UK and other democracies.
In Taiwan, Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is well ahead in opinion polls. DPP’s presidential candidate Lai Ching-te is likely to follow Tsai’s pro-independence policy, angering China which has vowed to reunify Taiwan by military force, if necessary. Beijing is watching the Taiwan election campaign closely. So is Washington. Polls are scheduled for January 13, 2024 and the results could have a major bearing on the China-US relationship.
The Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars have complicated Beijing’s Taiwan strategy as well as its relations with the West. An amphibious invasion of Taiwan which lies 100 miles from the Chinese mainland carries risks. With two wars raging in Europe and the Middle East, neither the US nor China wants to open a new front in the Pacific. That could bolster the electoral prospects of the anti-China DPP, led now by Lai Ching-te. Chinese President Xi Jinping is also waiting for the US presidential election before deciding Beijing’s strategy on Taiwan. Even if former US President Donald Trump returns to power against odds and despite the criminal cases against him, Xi will seek a transactional modus vivendi with him.
Taiwan could emerge as a bargaining chip. The fourth important election in 2024 is due in the UK. Britain has always punched above its geopolitical weight, using a combination of hard and soft power. The break with the European Union has hurt its economy. Commercial ties with China have unravelled following Beijing’s support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India, with its vast market, is for the pragmatic British the best option. Indian policymakers must leverage this
