MJ Akbar
Donald Trump is so unpredictable that he is in danger of becoming predictable. First, let us pay genuine homage to the disciple of Frank Sinatra who did it ‘My Way’. His way brought him back to the White House, which he will visit occasionally as he spends the next four years in the greater comfort and better weather of Florida.
For the first time in known history the most powerful empire on earth is in the grip of a man free from all obligations, not least of them being the human desire for continued power. Donald Trump knows that he is not going to be a candidate in 2028. He is liberated from caution. If his Republican Party wants office after him it can fend for itself.
Trump’s first term was a surprise prelude. The only people surprised by his victory last year were enemies blinded by hatred. From January 20 he will be writing the history of a new country called Trumperica.
Strategic weapon
His biggest asset is doubt which he uses as a strategic weapon. Will he bomb whatever is left of Gaza if hostages are not released within 48 hours or whatever is his ultimatum? No one can tell. That is his calling card. Will he conquer Greenland? It might not be a joke. He does not have to send marines into Nuuk, capital of 836,330 square miles which no one knew has been part of Denmark since 1814, with 56,583 subjects of King Frederik X, 89.51 per cent of them Inuit. He can set up bases and drill for minerals. What is the Danish monarch going to do? Send the air force? Yes, Trump will taunt Canada, probably every time he fancies a giggle.
Yes, he will call the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. No, he will not bomb Russia because Russia can bomb back. No, he will not start a major trade war with China because it would hurt America. Yes, he will sneer at Europe because most of the European establishment hates him. The road to Moscow does not go via Paris or Berlin in Trumperica.
Trump should check the route to Delhi because he just might need a friend. The rest of the world is fringe territory, worth an occasional glance in peacetime and a Trump thump if it becomes inimical to Trumperica.
Crypto-millionaires
The number of crypto-millionaires doubled in 2024, global trade grew to a record $33 trillion; the share price of Rolls-Royce rose from a low of £292 to £588; the arms industry celebrated Christmas, Eid and Diwali every week as global military expenditure touched $2.443 trillion, the highest in history.
America, France, Russia, China, and Germany were the biggest arms exporters; take this statistic out of their economies and only America will remain healthy. The parallel mercenary industry has no statistics because it does not acknowledge its existence. For the last two years it has been in lift-off mode. Mercenaries belong to two tribes, those who believe in passports and those who do not much care. A third category fills in as labour when conscription takes able-bodied men to the warfront. All are in demand. There are no headlines.
Hypocrisy remained, by far, the biggest industry of 2024. When the Ukraine war began, Washington and its allies spread-eagled media with tough talk of how they were going to bring Russia to its knees with economic sanctions. Now that the war seems to be exploding to an end, we learn that Russian gas to Europe stopped only this month. It was going through Ukraine, no less.
