India turns food-surplus powerhouse driven by robust farm sector growth

Blitz Bureau
NEW DELHI: India has evolved from a food-scarce nation to a food-surplus powerhouse with a strong export performance on the back of robust growth in agriculture, reflecting the farm sector’s resilience and its significant role in the global agricultural trade landscape, according to a study released by apex business chamber PHDCCI.
The report, titled ‘India’s Agricultural Transformation: From Food Scarcity to Surplus’, projects the country’s foodgrain production growth at 2 per cent, to about 3,357 lakh tonnes for the year 2024-25.
The business chamber’s projections indicate a significant expansion in agricultural and processed food products exports, with exports reaching $125 billion by FY2030, $250 billion by FY2035, $450 billion by FY2040, and $700 billion by FY2047.
The PHDCCI study projects that India’s food processing sector is expected to reach $700 billion by FY 2030, $1,100 billion by FY2035, $1,500 billion by FY 2040, $1,900 billion by FY 2040, and $2,150 billion by 2047.
The report states that while some states excel in agricultural performance, their overall economic growth remains modest. This highlights an opportunity to better leverage agricultural success to drive broader economic development. By strengthening linkages between agriculture and other sectors, these states can unlock new avenues for growth, fostering more inclusive and balanced economic growth, the report points out.
Overall, the analysis suggests that foodgrain production in India is significantly influenced by factors such as electricity availability, warehousing capacity, and gross irrigated area.
Rainfall does not appear to have a statistically significant impact, which contrasts with the traditional view of India’s heavy reliance on the monsoon for agriculture. The report is of the view that they have a moderate degree of association. This points to a more resilient agriculture having emerged in the country.
PHDCCI said that the objective of the study was to analyse agriculture and factors impacting agriculture in India by applying the techniques of trend analysis, correlation, and regression.
The latest figures also show that India’s rice exports jumped by a robust 44.61 per cent to $1.37 billion in January 2025 from $0.95 billion in January 2024 to emerge as one of the major growth drivers in the country’s overseas merchandise basket, reflecting the strength of the country’s farm sector. Similarly, soybean exports have also risen to a record high during the month.