Blitz Bureau
NEW DELHI: Surging oil prices triggered by the war with Iran are rippling across African economies, threatening higher fuel costs, rising inflation and renewed pressure on currencies across the continent.
Africa imports most of the petroleum products it consumes, leaving many economies highly vulnerable to supply disruptions tied to tensions in the Middle East, a region central to global oil flows. “Africa is a net importer of oil products, meaning it is heavily exposed to shocks like these,” said Nick Hedley, an energy transition research analyst at Zero Carbon Analytics.
When global oil supplies tighten prices rise while African currencies often weaken as investors move funds into safe-haven assets such as the US dollar. That combination amplifies the impact of price spikes in import-dependent markets such as Kenya and Ghana.
Oil markets remain particularly sensitive to the conflict because of the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping corridor through which about a fifth of the world’s crude passes.
The impact of higher oil prices across Africa will be uneven. Countries like Kenya and Uganda say their supply remains stable even as they work on ensuring continuity. Nigeria and Ghana produce crude oil but import most of their refined petroleum products, limiting the benefits to them of higher global prices.
“It’s difficult to say at this point whether they will see net gains,” Hedley said. “Oil producers could benefit from higher crude prices, but ordinary citizens will likely face higher transport and fuel costs, and potentially higher interest rates.”
Windfall for oil exporters Still, sustained high prices could bring a windfall for Africa’s major oil exporters. Nigeria exports roughly 1.5 million barrels of oil per day and has based its medium-term fiscal framework on oil prices between $64 and $66 per barrel through 2028.
For most African households, however, the immediate effect is likely to be higher living costs.
