BEFORE the end of the first month of 2024, it’s time to evaluate the year gone by from security point of view.
Sadly, the past year saw a slew of bloody activities, whether it was the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the terror attacks by the French nationals of Algerian origin in France, or the North African-origin terrorists wreaking havoc in Rotterdam and other parts of Europe. The trend was the same. The most significant, however, was the bloodbath emanating from the Israel-Hamas armed confrontation that led to farreaching geopolitical implications.
Significantly, the immediate fallout of the ongoing conflict has given rise to the possibilities of a likely ‘unity’ amongst every Islamic nation which nurtures acrimony towards Israel and the Jews. Iran, Qatar and other likeminded nations have joined hands to take on Israel through multiple measures which have only given rise to escalation of military adventurism and further destruction.
UN hapless spectator
With the UN looking like a hapless spectator and a spineless watchdog, things in the not-so-distant future look dim. With no sign of any letup in the conflicts and no sincere efforts either by any world power, peace looks remote. This apart, chances of religious indoctrination and subsequent religion-linked extremism seem to be on the anvil.
Shifting from the Middle East to other parts of the world which witnessed bloodshed, though not necessarily on a large scale, upset the geopolitical equations and the prevailing chemistry; Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s statement accusing India of the killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar and the unnecessary row over alleged plans to kill Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun made things murkier. Matters now look more complicated and as of today, beyond repair.
The US, Canada and other countries of the conglomerate need to address the issue without any further delay so that the bilateral and multilateral ties between the concerned nations have prospects of redemption. It is equally lamentable that a Sikh separatist leader, who is wanted as a terrorist in India, is allowed to issue threats of attacks on Indian Parliament and Indian aircraft. How would Pannun’s protectors, or handlers, feel if the threat to his country of stay emanates from any other foreign territory?
Terror attacks in Pak
Judging by the happenings 2023, the year 2024 also does not show any signs of promise in terms of peace and tranquil. Dwelling on the terror attacks in Pakistan, we noticed a spate of terror attacks beginning from January last year happening at regular intervals more as a pattern, particularly taking the toll of security and intelligence officials in various provinces almost throughout the preceding year. More disturbingly, the casualties occurred inside the places of worship and the perpetrators of the attacks were from Pakistan only, though operating from the Afghan soil; more specifically by the Tehreeke-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
It is difficult to predict if the New Year will see the same ferocity of attacks by the same forces unleashing fear and terror. Most security experts, however, feel that the fury of violence is likely to intensify. Further, it is equally pertinent to point out that Pakistan and India are poised for general elections during the year. With a world fraught with communal frenzy and propensity of violent disturbances, the happenings of last year can see a repeat of the occurrences, perhaps, with harsher consequences.
Recent election results in Maldives also prove the potential of changing the geopolitics. Equilibrium with Maldives is rapidly drifting towards China-Turkey axis emboldening these countries to try and alienate India, which is now emerging as an economic and military powerhouse.
Maritime security
It is also germane to highlight that maritime security is now under threat as demonstrated by the Houthi rebels in Yemen resorting to frequent drone attacks on commercial sea vessels and also taking recourse to sea piracy. The Red sea, Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea are particularly vulnerable today and unless the trend is curbed militarily and diplomatically, the threat might proliferate to other territorial waters.
Against the backdrop of these disturbing developments of the last year, 2024 is likely to see more pronounced turbulence, fanaticism and military conflagrations engulfing more areas for military conflict and hatred. Pacifists the world over are legitimately pessimistic about a trouble-free 2024. Fingers crossed!
