Shantanu Mukharji
UNDER Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, there is a thought being fostered that the almostdefunct South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), founded by General Zia, must be revived. Ideas are also being generated that Bangladesh must try to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and come close to Myanmar for doing robust trade, and collaborate with other South Asian countries, so as to be economically and commercially independent of India. Political analysts in Dhaka feel that it is time Bangladesh looked for new partners and friends and move on ignoring India; though in reality, it is easier said than done.
Crucially, BNP’s Tarique Rahman is silently crafting a policy to adhere to these plans as today there is a virulent anti-India feeling prevailing in the country and it is easy now to capture the mindset of the people who are living in a state of uncertainty due to a failed and poor administration of the Yunus-led Government.
Military following
Another important factor which needs to be remembered is the considerable following of the BNP among the armed forces. That’s mainly because of ex-President Zia. There must be many adherents of the Jamaat, too, in the cantonment but they can be easily sidelined by the relative charisma of the BNP, which, in the absence of the AL, is proceeding with abundant caution and with a plan. However, its political advisors are mistaken if they think they can ignore India and move on. The anti-India bias may be shortlived in Bangladesh and this reality must be factored.
It’s not easy to shake the off age-old cultural and historical ties between India and Bangladesh. The foundation is so strong that it will assert at some point of time and in all likelihood, may reverse all the grandiose plans of the BNP. Also, Indian security interests will never be compromised if at all the BNP comes to power and, like in its previous regimes, tries to support and harbor anti-India insurgents. Indian security and intelligence agencies are alert on this score.
Yunus losing grip
Meanwhile, fast-changing political developments in Bangladesh clearly indicate that Chief Advisor Yunus is gradually losing grip on governance and people are losing trust in his administration. No area of activity is within control, be it economic downslide, rising prices, failing law and order and below-par external affairs policies.
Knowledgeable quarters are not ruling out a change in the administration sometime next year with the Army, now playing a tacit role, asserting a definite roadmap for a new dispensation. They claim it is just a question of time. This could be the likely reason that the BNP under Tarique Rahman is in a hurry to come in. Much will be seen how Mirza Fakhrul, with his new charter received from London, implements the plans on ground.
India, in all its wisdom and political and diplomatic maturity, is watching the developments closely, especially after the recent visit of Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri. Bangladesh Foreign Office shouldn’t underestimate India that all is lost between the two countries and should dispel the wishful thinking that Bangladesh can conveniently wipe off India from its drawing board. Regimes come and go but a country with solid foundations of democracy, like India with established institutions and a vibrant democracy, will continue with its policies and objectives irrespective of a government not necessarily favourable to its desires. Bangladesh media, which has taken on India targeting the latter’s media in particular, must tone down its rhetoric as it is doing a huge disservice to bilateral ties.
