In the 1962 conflict, if China wanted, they could have retained captured territory up to Tawang, which has a tremendous religious sentiment attached with Tibet. Had they done this, then under the circumstances prevailing those days it would have been well-nigh impossible for India to retake Tawang. But strangely, China did not do so despite the much-publicised dispute related to their claim over Arunachal Pradesh being part of Southern Tibet. They took a unilateral decision to withdraw completely, but on the other side, they decided to retain over 2000 sq km of alpine desert in Ladakh which was totally uninhabited with no resources.
This was taken as an insignificant gain for China at that time, but the importance was realised only later when it connected Tibet and Xinjiang, or to say Lhasa with Kashgar, giving them the most strategic advantage, they were looking for to set course in not so a distant future. Though India claimed Aksai Chin as part of Ladakh, for China, it was always an integral part of Tibet. China later ceded over 750 sq km of territory to Pakistan and in return, Pakistan recognised Chinese sovereignty on 800 sq km of territory in Northern Kashmir and Ladakh.
The 1962 war with India, thus, resulted in a major strategic gain for China. Since then, the claim of ownership of Arunachal Pradesh by China, apparently, has been only a ‘drum to beat’ once a while for distracting or attracting attention depending on the prevailing situation, circumstances and motive.
International support
As far as India is concerned, the 1962 War was a big jolt which led to the reversal of defence policy. However, the silver lining was that the three major powers of the world, namely the United States, the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom, came out openly in support of India recognising the McMahon Line as the international border between India and China.
While both the US and the Soviet Union diplomatically intervened during the 1965 Indo-Pak War and managed to cease the conflict, the situation was different during the conflict in 1971. Major support came from the Soviet Union when they moved their nuclear warships and submarines to counter the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet, which was moving into the Indian Ocean to support Pakistan. India had already entered into a twenty-year deal with the Soviet Union prior to the 1971 War stating that any attack on India would be taken as attack on the Soviet Union. Then came the Kargil conflict during which Israel came in support of India making readily available several modern weapon systems for both the Indian Air Force and the Indian Army.
Interestingly, in every conflict with Pakistan, other than providing economic aid and political support, China has always avoided military involvement. But how long will this continue in the times ahead? Today, besides supplying military equipment to Pakistan, the Chinese military is also present inside Pakistan to protect the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
China’s compulsions
China has been investing heavily in military modernisation and reportedly enjoys technical superiority in some areas such as anti-ship missiles, cyber and space capabilities which also is a threat for the US. China has successfully developed Anti Access Area Denial system which will help keep the US forces away from their coast. China has built military bases including airports on the islands in the South China Sea. China also has an ambient presence in the Indian Ocean Region from the Strait of Hormuz to the Strait of Malacca.
With gradual shift of focus from the Middle East, the US has started to look more at the Asia-Pacific Region considering China as a long-term threat. The South China Sea and Taiwan are, therefore, a matter of concern for China.
With China’s huge irreversible investment in the CPEC passing through the disputed territories of Aksai Chin, POK and finally turning Gwadar port into a Container Port. The possibility of it turning this port into a base for the Chinese Navy in the future cannot be ruled out.
China already has a military base in Djibouti. Besides the slowing economy, China is also vulnerable to ongoing simmering unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang province. This vulnerability can be exploited by the Western powers. This is why China does not want to annoy the terrorist organisations in Pakistan that are capable of cross-border terrorism and provide support to Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.
Global aspirations
Considering China’s global aspirations, under the prevailing circumstances, China may not prefer to get involved in a war with India especially as an aggressor.
A war with India will not only inflict a heavy dent on their economy pushing it behind by many years compared to other powers of the world especially the US, but will also provide an opportunity to the US to take strategic advantage in the South China Sea and Taiwan further strengthening Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and other alliances in the Asia-Pacific Region as a front against China.
Though India is not a part of any military alliance, the Nation has very close relationship with major countries including Russia, the US, Israel, France and close neighbours such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka, serving and safeguarding each other’s indispensable mutual interests.
Thus, a direct attack by China on India, will not only invite the US fleet into the Asia-Pacific Region, but will also enlarge the conflict spectrum attracting other allies of the US and India too.
