Haya Qazi
A LATEST survey by NABARD reveals a significant rise in the proportion of rural households relying on agriculture – climbing from 48 per cent in 2016-17 to 57 per cent in 2021-22. The share of agriculture in employed labour force, which had declined after the 1980s, rose to 46.5 pc during pandemic, reinforcing rural dependence on agriculture. Today, with a 46.1 pc employment share in 2023-24, it is clear that agriculture remains the backbone of India’s rural economy, and it must adapt to the challenges of climate change.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world is on the brink of surpassing a critical 1.5°C increase in global temperatures compared to pre-industrial levels. This threshold, once breached, will lead to irreversible ecological damage, biodiversity loss, and heightened vulnerability to extreme weather events. For India – dependent on monsoons, with small landholdings and limited technological penetration – climate change poses an existential threat to agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods.
Vulnerable model
India’s agricultural model, while robust, is uniquely vulnerable. Climate change-induced disruptions in monsoon patterns and the unpredictability of rainfall increasingly threaten crop yields. The Himalayan states, particularly Jammu & Kashmir, have already experienced these effects. Research indicates that erratic weather has severely impacted the fertile Karewa belt, reducing yields of mustard, apricots, and other crops. Glacial melt, delayed snowfall, and rising temperatures have diminished water availability, impacting not only crop production but also food security.
Global warming
While agriculture faces climate threats, it is also a contributing factor to global warming. India’s status as the largest rice exporter comes with environmental costs. Rice paddies, which are flooded for cultivation, create ideal conditions for methane release due to anaerobic decomposition of organic matter underwater. Methane, being 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2, accelerates global warming. Further, India’s livestock industry releases considerable methane during digestion, adding to the agricultural sector’s greenhouse gas footprint. Stubble burning, especially in northern India, further aggravates the issue.
Studies by the IPCC warn that global crop yields could decrease by 10-25 per cent by 2050 due to rising temperatures and frequent weather disruptions. While certain crops, like soybeans, may thrive under these conditions, staples like wheat and barley face serious risks. Extended heatwaves escalate water demands and pest infestations, which are already observed in maize crops, where pests such as the maize stalk borer thrive in warmer temperatures, reducing yield and farmer income.
India must prioritise climate-resilient agriculture, leveraging sustainable practices that enhance productivity while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), which integrates crop, soil, and water management with a focus on adaptability, offers viable solutions.
CSA viable solutions
Innovation in crop varieties: Crop diversification and development of climate-resilient varieties are crucial. Institutes such as the ICAR are working to promote climate-tolerant varieties of pulses, oilseeds, and cereals that require less water and withstand temperature fluctuations better.
Improved irrigation systems: Efficient water management is paramount in climate-resilient agriculture. Microirrigation techniques like drip and sprinkler systems can optimise water usage. Sustainable practices: Mechanised solutions, such as the Happy Seeder, enable farmers to incorporate crop residues into soil rather than burning them.
Land management: Integrating trees and shrubs on farms, known as agroforestry, helps sequester carbon, supports biodiversity, and enhances soil health. Digital farming: Technological advancements like remote sensing, IoT-based soil sensors, and data analytics can provide real-time information on soil moisture, crop health, and nutrient levels, allowing farmers to optimize resources.
Role of Governance
Policies like the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA), aligned with India’s commitments to the Paris Agreement, highlight the Government’s emphasis on building a climate-resilient agricultural framework. The National Action Plan on Climate Change also calls for implementing State Action Plans that tailor climate responses to region-specific challenges. However, while policy frameworks are in place, robust implementation and finance is critical.
