The Conference of Parties COP27 of the UN Framework for Climate Change has just concluded at Sharm ElSheikh, Egypt. In the days and weeks that follow experts across the globe will analyse the full gamut of its impact and implications for the developed and the developing world. But, as we see, there is nothing concrete in it for the developing world. The declarations are, at best, ambiguous and nonquantifiable. Barring a declaration for a Loss and Damage Fund, there is nothing concrete. And even the L&D Fund can at best be called an incremental gain whose success depends on the commitment of the developed world and the actual delivery on the ground. For India, phase-down instead of a phaseout of coal, a reiteration of the Glasgow clause, is the only saving grace. And, the deafening silence of COP27 on non-coal fossil fuels, eg petroleum and natural gas is ominous.
Just a glance at India’s installed power capacity vs demand shows how critically dependent we are on fossil fuels. Out of a total installed capacity of about 410 GW, about 60% is coal/fossil fuel dependent, about 50 GW is hydro and the rest 120 GW is solar, wind etc. But despite claims of about 170 GW of renewable energy, such is the criticality of coal/fossil fuel dependence, that every summer when the all India demand touches 210-220 GW, and every year in postmonsoon weeks when coal stocks are wet, there is widespread power outage and very routinely blamegame starts between coal producers, coal transporters (Railways), and the electricity distributing companies. This summer, the Government of India asked the states to import coal to sustain the supplies.
India’s right to develop
We are an emerging power. We are a nation of 140 crore people, very soon to be the most populous country on the planet. More than two-thirds of our population is younger than 35.
We are an ambitious nation with a proud past and a promising future. We cannot forego our right to develop and achieve a decent standard of living for our people. We cannot go back to the bullock cart age while the developed world enjoys the fruits of their past sins and present advantage. We cannot.
At the same time, climate change is for real and India as a responsible country has to contribute to mitigate its adverse impact. At the global level, there have been tremendous changes in the world since the first Conference was held in Berlin in 1995 within a few years of the collapse of the Soviet Union, fall of the Berlin Wall and end of the Cold War era. This period of almost three decades has seen the end of the Cold War to the world becoming unipolar, a simultaneous period of two successful decades of economic globalisation and liberalisation and then the current phase of several U-turns by countries of the developed world, the very proponents of these theories.
North in denial mode
The countries of the Global North have developed to their current levels, having had the first-mover advantage during the first and second industrial revolutions, having generated billions and billions of tons of greenhouse gases in the process during the two preceding centuries. Yet they do not want to allow this same right to the developing countries. The developed world refuses to accept that their unsustainable consumption lifestyle is the primary reason. For example, the US is the biggest fossil carbon dioxide emitting country on the planet, with a mere 4% of the global population it produces more than 25% of the fossil carbon dioxide emission. The emission of EU countries is broadly similar. Yet, they are unwilling to recognise the adverse impact of their unsustainably lavish energy consumption and lifestyle. Instead, they invariably point out high population and poverty of the developing countries as the primary reasons for pollution and developed West has to accept that other countries also have a right to develop. For everyone on the planet, there must be an inalienable right to develop and the right to have reasonably comfortable living standards. To save the planet, developing countries cannot be pushed back to the bullock carts era while the developed West continues to lead exorbitantly lavish energy guzzling lifestyle.
Glasgow COP takeaways
At Glasgow (COP 26), as part mitigation measures, India and several other developing countries had vociferously advocated for two important Action Points (a) a graduated phase-down of coal usage instead of a complete phase-out and (b) continuation of targeted subsidy on fossil fuels like Kerosene and LPG to the poor and needy. At Sharm ElSheikh, despite stiff opposition by the developed world, India succeeded in getting both these two points retained.
Despite solar power becoming cheaper, it would be premature for a developing country like us to phase out fossil fuels so early. The COP27 draft includes (A) transition to sustainable patterns of production, consumption and lifestyle and (b) a commitment of Loss and Damage Fund. India and other developing countries will gain significantly from these.
While we will march with the rest of the world, we will remain aware and alert of the common but differentiated responsibilities. While we should pursue all alternative renewable and green energy options like photovoltaic solar, wind, nuclear and hydro as well as encourage ethanol and jatropha blending in fossil fuels like petrol and diesel, we cannot at this stage abruptly abandon coal and other fossil fuels, nor should we completely remove subsidy on these fuels given to the poor and the marginalized segments.
Whether or not Sharm El-Sheikh has achieved anything or not will, therefore, depend mainly on the developed countries’ will and commitment.
