INTRO: At the heart of crisis stands the Khomeini-led regime, clinging to authority through repression rather than legitimacy
Prabhu Chawla
History offers a grim and recurring warning. When rulers confuse personal ego with national destiny, when ambition is mistaken for greatness, and when power is pursued without restraint, nations are pushed towards catastrophe. Today, that familiar and dangerous pattern is unfolding once again. This time in Iran, a nation standing at the epicentre of domestic implosion and international confrontation, with consequences that could reverberate across the world.
At the heart of this crisis stands the Khomeini-led regime, clinging to authority through repression rather than legitimacy. The domestic economy has been sacrificed at the altar of ideological vanity. At the same time, the external pressure intensifies. Donald Trump’s rhetoric roars with threats of intervention and more punitive sanctions. Beijing and Moscow, sensing both strategic opportunity and ideological alignment, have rallied behind Tehran, fortifying Iran’s resistance against Washington.
Between these opposing power blocs stands India, caught in an excruciating bind. It is unable to abandon Iran entirely because of geography, energy needs and regional interests, yet equally unable to openly defy the US and its tightening sanctions regime.
Washington’s message has been unambiguous. Nations that continue dealings with Tehran will pay a heavy price through sanctions and additional tariffs. New Delhi, reading the storm clouds carefully, has already begun recalibrating. Indian citizens have been advised to leave Iran immediately. Strategic enthusiasm for the Chabahar port project has visibly cooled. It was once touted as India’s gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
As tensions escalate, a chilling question hangs in the air. Could this Iranian crisis snowball into a third world war, or trigger the collapse of the already fragile global economic order? If world leaders fail to meet, talk and compromise, the answer may no longer be hypothetical.
The Iranian crisis today is not merely a geopolitical chessboard. It is a human tragedy unfolding in real time. The Indian Government’s urgent advisory urging all nationals to leave Iran underscores the severity of the situation. From Tehran to Mashhad, Tabriz to Isfahan, Shiraz to Qom, streets are simmering with violence and rage. Brutal repression has become routine. Protests flare, are crushed and re-emerge with renewed fury.
Estimates suggest that nearly 10,000 Indian nationals remain stranded across Iran. Among them are students pursuing higher education, religious pilgrims seeking spiritual fulfilment, businessmen trapped by frozen transactions, engineers employed in technical projects, and tourists caught unawares by a rapidly-collapsing security environment.
The current Iranian inferno did not erupt overnight. The turmoil is a culmination of centuries of historical contradictions, political betrayals, social tensions and ideological experiments gone wrong.
Iran was once among humanity’s greatest civilisational beacons. The Persian Empire dazzled the ancient world under rulers like Cyrus the Great and Darius, leaving behind monumental legacies such as Persepolis. Persian culture gifted humanity poetry, philosophy, science, and art of extraordinary depth and beauty. Ferdowsi, Rumi and Hafez shaped universal thought. Architecture soared, music flourished and knowledge crossed continents.
Reza Shah Pahlavi
In the 20th century, Iran again stood on the threshold of transformation. When Reza Shah Pahlavi took power in 1925, he laid the foundations of a modern, nationalist state. Infrastructure expanded rapidly. Roads, railways and universities emerged. Women gained rights unheard of in much of West Asia. Education spread, social mobility improved and Iran aligned itself with global modernity. Under Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, from 1941 to 1979, Iranian cities blossomed into cosmopolitan centres. Women studied, worked and dressed freely. Cultural exchange with the world thrived. Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz became symbols of progress and aspiration.
Yet, beneath this polished surface, darker currents were taking shape. The Shah’s secret police, SAVAK, was cultivating fear through torture and surveillance. Gargantuan corruption at the highest levels widened economic inequality. Into this volatile mix stepped Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, an exiled cleric who transformed grievance into ideology. Broadcasting sermons from France, he mobilised the disillusioned, framing modernity as moral decay and authoritarian rule as Western subjugation.
By the late 1978, Iran was ablaze with revolutionary fervour. The Shah fled in January 1979. On February 1, Khomeini returned to Tehran to a rapturous reception and a new Iran was born as an Islamic Republic. Today’s Iran bears the heavy burden of that transformation. Nearly 90 million people live under crushing economic and political pressure. Inflation soars relentlessly. Unemployment is widespread, especially among the youth. Sanctions cripple industry and trade, while corruption and mismanagement corrode what remains.
Limping economy
Despite holding 208 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, around 12 per cent of the global total, Iran’s economy limps along with a GDP of roughly $400 billion, ranking it well below its potential. Now the breaking point has arrived. Religious policing has become intolerable. In addition, the State has ruthlessly tightened its grip by shutting down the internet, arresting journalists and women activists, and silencing media.
This domestic upheaval has spilled into a dangerous international confrontation. The US has served ultimatums and deployed military assets in the region. In a retaliatory move, Russia and China have tightened their embrace of Tehran. They have cited shared strategic and energy interests while denouncing American aggression. Alliances have sharpened, causing a real possibility of a major confrontation between two powerful blocs.
For India, the fallout is immediate and severe. Bilateral trade with Iran, valued at $1.6-1.8 billion, has nearly collapsed. Indian exporters face unpaid dues. Any instability in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 per cent of global oil flows, threatens India’s energy security. India has been forced to indulge in a perilous tightrope while balancing ties with the US and managing regional interests in Iran – while at the same time navigating relationships with Russia and China, and above all, protecting its citizens.
Urgent diplomacy
Experts warn that if this crisis continues unchecked, the consequences could be catastrophic. What begins as regional unrest could metastasise into a global confrontation within months or years. The only escape from this abyss lies in urgent diplomacy. Dialogue must replace threats. De-escalation must override ego. World leaders must convene not for spectacle, but for solutions.
The choice before humanity is stark. Continue down the path of pride and power, and risk dragging the world into irreversible ruin – or step back, listen, compromise and choose coexistence over confrontation. Iran’s inferno is not just its own. It is a warning flare to the world. Whether it becomes the spark of global collapse or the catalyst for collective wisdom will depend on what leaders do next. The future, precariously balanced, is watching.
For India, the fallout is immediate and severe. Bilateral trade with Iran, valued at $1.6-1.8 billion, has nearly collapsed. Indian exporters face unpaid dues
