K Srinivasan
The intersection of global aviation and geopolitics is a high-stakes arena where airspace is routinely weaponised. Take, for example, the Russia-Ukraine war and its fallout for aviation.
When Moscow banned Western airlines from Russian skies following the 2022 Ukraine crisis, the result was a $1-million advantage for Chinese carriers. They were at liberty to fly the direct, fuel-efficient routes to North America. When American Airlines complained to the US President, the Trump administration took a blunt, unilateral approach: it told the Chinese to stop using Russian airspace for flights bound for the US, or else face hefty tariffs.
Now, the US is the world’s number one economy and can afford such arm-twisting. America is the greatest consumer the world has seen and continues to be, and an indispensable destination for global trade. It gives the US the sort of leverage that one can only dream of. If the U.S. had indeed gone through with its threat, Chinese Airlines would have felt the pain, and the ripple effect would have been felt globally.
But as an economic heavyweight with a gigantic trading arm, China was able to look the Americans in the eye and say, “No, you can’t do that.”
India’s best path
Not so for India; no doubt, a rising aviation power replicating this sort of Trumpian punitive strategy would actually result in severe repercussions. Setting an equalisation fee or asking European, American, and Gulf carriers not to use Pakistani airspace when flying into India would trigger immediate asymmetric diplomatic retaliation, dry up lucrative overflight fees, and create unintended chaos for both the travelling public and the aviation industry as a whole.
So some of those who have expressed this idea need to rethink it hard.
India’s best path forward lies in a nuanced ‘middle way’. The path it has always sought to use in its diplomatic strategy. This would mean precise regulatory protectionism and some effort at levelling the playing field without disturbing the status quo. As a first step, the Civil Aviation Ministry could ensure that:
–All future seat allocations are part of bilateral treaties with Europe, America, and the Middle East.
–The allocation of new weekly flight frequencies is tied to routing requirements stipulating that expansion is permitted only if the specific flights avoid any contested airspace.
India’s best path forward lies in a nuanced ‘middle way’. The path it has always sought to use in its diplomatic strategy. This would mean precise regulatory protectionism and some effort at levelling the playing field
Overflight privileges
What this does is offer capacity while also creating a subtle commercial disadvantage for foreign airlines and giving domestic carriers a level-playing field. Without a doubt, this will be contested by all airlines, and it will likely go to ICAO, which sets the template for all flying regulations. It would allow the country to debate the issue and tell ICAO that overflight privileges cannot be used as a means of blackmail.
There is also a huge opportunity for the Government to help Indian carriers in multiple ways. One simple step would be to offer targeted financial benefits to all airlines detouring around Pakistan on flights to the Gulf, Europe, and beyond. The Government can also waive route navigation facilitation charges, landing fees, and parking costs at Indian hubs for all affected long-haul routes, as well as short-haul Gulf routes. Observe these operational overhead costs and reimburse the private airport operators accordingly.
The Government could also consider direct excise duty or Value Added Tax rebates on Aviation Turbine Fuel for impacted flights, which would neutralise the fuel-cost asymmetry, allowing Indian carriers to price their tickets competitively.
Unlock efficiency
Lastly the Government must unlock efficiency. India can unlock efficiency within its own borders. By maximising the Flexible Use of Airspace and temporarily opening restricted military corridors, India’s civil aviation regulators can streamline domestic paths. Even shaving 20 minutes off a long detour via optimised border exit points significantly reduces the competitive gap. By embracing this multi-layered middle path, India and the DGCA, the country’s regulator, can do better by streamlining domestic air paths. If we can shave 20 minutes off a long detour with optimised border exit points, it will significantly reduce the competitive gap.
It is only by embracing this multi-layered middle path that India can protect its sovereign aviation assets and help the national carriers. Our true strategic autonomy will be maintained not through Trump-like ultimatums but through a well-thought-out, calculated, resilient policy that can stand the test of time.
