NEW DELHI: A surging artificial intelligence investment boom has helped global goods trade withstand the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, prompting the World Trade Organization (WTO) to more than double its forecast for merchandise trade growth this year.
The Geneva-based international trade body now expects global merchandise trade volumes to grow 3.9 per cent in 2026, up sharply from its March forecast of 1.9 per cent. It is projected to accelerate slightly to 4.1 per cent in 2027.
Global gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to expand 2.6 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent next year, according to the WTO’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics released on October 8.
But the headline numbers mask an uneven picture, with much of the strength concentrated in AI-related products and Asian economies, while the rest of the world remains considerably weaker.
“Asia is, in some sense, the story of global trade growth at the moment, because global trade growth is really being driven by the AI investment boom,” WTO chief economist Robert Staiger told CNA.
Demand for AI-enabling products such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47 per cent of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, according to the WTO.
Staiger said the AI boom, which had rapidly gathered pace in the past two years, had defied expectations that it might moderate in 2026. Merchandise trade volumes grew a stronger-thanexpected 3.5 per cent in the first half of the year, despite disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.
The Geneva-based international trade body expects global merchandise trade volumes to grow 3.9 per cent in 2026, up from its March forecast of 1.9 per cent
The WTO said global trade proved more resilient than expected, as economies and supply chains adapted to energy and transport disruptions and kept essential products flowing.
Middle Eastern crude oil exports fell about 24 per cent in the first half, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports plunged 47 per cent. But alternative suppliers limited the decline in global exports to around 6 per cent for crude oil and just 1 per cent for LNG.
Fertiliser markets also adjusted despite severe disruptions, while trade flows were rerouted through alternative ports and corridors.
The WTO downgraded its forecast for commercial services trade volume growth to 3.3 per cent this year from 4.8 per cent in March, as the conflict weighed on transport and travel.
International tourist arrivals fell 0.8 per cent year-onyear in the second quarter, while travellers’ spending abroad grew just 5 per cent, down from 15 per cent in the first quarter.
Services trade growth is expected to rebound to 6.4 per cent next year.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the latest figures showed “trade resilience in action” but cautioned that the benefits have been uneven. “Some have felt the shock more than others, and not everyone can access emerging opportunities like AI,” she said.
Major driver
AI-related investment is expected to remain a major driver of merchandise trade into 2027.
Global spending on AI infrastructure is projected to rise by at least 30 per cent this year, with current market projections pointing to a further increase of between 10 and 20 per cent next year.
If not for AI, Staiger said the picture would look considerably weaker. “Without AI growth, there would be a dramatic reduction in our forecast of trade growth in all regions,” he said.
