MJ Akbar
The squeals in the first days are loudest in allied capitals. Just in case you have had amnesia, Trump has already declared a non-military war against America’s allies in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Canada and Mexico, to absorb the first and push back the second. Europe’s leaders are providing daily evidence of a known fact, that they have forgotten how to mobilise. For two generations they have been growing affluent under America’s expensive security umbrella without paying any fee for protection.
Trump wants the money so he can spend it on Americans. That is why he won the election. The spectacle must be amusing if you are watching from Moscow or Beijing or Tehran, although they know that the prologue could soon give way to drama.
Russia and China have established contact with Trump. China has been skilful. President Xi Jinping has already had a conversation with Trump even after declining to attend the inaugural ceremony, which is a plus for his diplomats. It is quite probable that they agreed upon the terms for saving TikTok; and Trump’s public threats to impose tariffs on China now hover around 10 per cent rather than 20 per cent.
Watch and wait
The date and structure of a meeting with Vladimir Putin are being negotiated. Trump has good memories of Putin, and no longer need worry about voicing an inappropriate sentiment: “I got along with him great, I would hope he wants to make a deal.” Putin hopes so, too, while Ukraine’s daily-statement President is now pleading for a deal along what he calls the 2022 borders. The more seasoned players in Moscow and Beijing are watching, waiting, and consulting each other through video conferences. They will not have to wait too long, for Trump is a President in a hurry.
The hurry is rational. Donald Trump has only a thousand days of power left in his bank.
There are about 1,200 days left before the next presidential election, after which the incumbent is left to sit, increasingly bereft of officials or companions, in the anteroom of history. More than 200 days are lost in the fog of democracy, which is darker and more acrimonious than the fog of war. The most powerful man in the world suddenly loses muscle not because he has been defeated by an opponent but because he has been incapacitated by time.
A confrontationist
The Ukraine war, stability in West Asia, relations with China and draining the Washington swamp of Biden-Obama Democrats are clearly the three immediate priorities of Donald Trump. He is confrontationist, not a diplomat. He believes that the Biden Government was the most “radical and corrupt establishment” in Washington, and has nudged Republicans into ordering an inquiry against Biden’s alleged corruption.
You can always photograph change. It sits on faces. Take another look at the photographs of political celebrities gathered to celebrate transition. Check the faces when the artificial bonhomie is over, when there is no need to smile for the cameras. Michelle Obama went away on a long holiday because she knew that the cameras would snap out her pain and anger.
How much has Barack Obama, virtual President during the Biden administration, aged in 11 weeks? How much younger has Trump become? Power is the mirror image you can barely recognise.
