Blitz Bureau
NEW DELHI: India has just come through a month that repaired most of the damage a bad June did, and the forecast for the rest of the season asks farmers to plan for less rain rather than more. The India Meteorological Department said on Friday that rainfall over most of the country is likely to be below normal — under 94% of the long period average — in August, and that the southwest monsoon is expected to stay below normal across the remaining two months of the 2026 season.
The reference points matter for reading that forecast. The long period average for August alone is 254.9mm, and for August and September combined 422.8mm, both based on the 1971–2020 record. The IMD identified exceptions where normal to above-normal rain remains likely: parts of eastern peninsular India, some parts of northwest and central India, and isolated areas of the east and north-east. Forecasts from several international centres also point to positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions developing during September, a pattern that has historically supported the Indian monsoon.
Sowing is largely done; filling the grain is not: August and September rain determines yield on a crop that has already gone into the ground across most of the country.
A forecast issued in time is not bad news. It is the difference between a season managed and a season endured.
At a Glance
• IMD outlook, issued July 31: August rainfall likely below normal — under 94% of the long period average — over most of India
• Rest of season: the monsoon is expected to stay below normal across August and September
• Long period average, August: 254.9mm
• Long period average, August–September: 422.8mm
• Baseline period: 1971–2020
• Exceptions where normal or above-normal rain is likely: parts of eastern peninsular India; some parts of northwest and central India; isolated areas of the east and north-east
• September signal: positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are expected to develop, a pattern historically favourable to the monsoon
The timing of this forecast is the reason it is manageable rather than alarming. Sowing across most of the country is largely complete; what August and September now govern is yield — the grain-filling and flowering stages, when a crop that is already in the ground converts water into weight. That shifts the intervention set entirely, away from seed distribution and towards irrigation, and India is better placed on that front than it has been in any previous drought-risk year. Reservoir storage built up during July’s recovery, groundwater levels recharged over the past two seasons, and a far larger area under assured irrigation than a decade ago all act as buffers designed for exactly this scenario.
Four practical measures do most of the work from here, and all four are administratively straightforward if they are moving in the first week of August rather than the last. Reservoir release schedules should be planned now around a below-normal expectation, not revised in September once the shortfall is visible. Assured power supply for pump sets during the grain-filling window is worth more to a farmer than almost any transfer, because it converts stored groundwater into yield at the precise moment it counts. Extension advisories on supplemental irrigation timing and moisture conservation need to reach farmers by phone rather than notice board. And crop insurance assessment should be readied in advance for the districts the IMD has flagged, so that any claim is processed against the season it belongs to. A below-normal forecast delivered on the first day of August is, in the end, six weeks of warning — and six weeks is enough.
