Blitz Bureau
NEW DELHI: The bugle has been sounded. Come April, and all eyes will be riveted on four states and one Union Territory, the Assembly elections to which will do more than decide local governments. They will provide an acid test of whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains the most decisive electoral force in the country, or whether the regional satraps can still hold his party, the BJP, at bay.
According to the schedule, announced by the Election Commission on March 15, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry will vote on April 9, Tamil Nadu on April 23; and West Bengal will witness two-phase polling on April 23 and 29. The verdict for all five will be delivered in May 4. The contests, which many are calling the’ Mini General Election of 2026’, are local in form but unmistakably national in consequence.
Mamata vs Modi In West Bengal, the election is once again being cast as Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee versus PM Modi.
While Mamata is fighting to preserve her image as West Bengal’s unbending regional sentinel, the BJP sees the state as its biggest remaining opening in the East. Therefore, for the BJP even an improved performance will be seen as a strategic advance. For Mamata, holding the state for the fourth time in a row will reinforce her standing in the Opposition alliance.
In Assam, the BJP enters the fray from a position of strength under its Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The party has a more settled organisation, a sharper campaign machine, and the advantage of incumbency.
The Congress hopes to tap local discontent but at the moment, the state appears to be the BJP’s most comfortable battleground. The party, however, faces hostile political terrain in Tamil Nadu where the campaign has already turned edgy. The state has been rocked by controversy over ‘sexist’ remarks by Opposition leaders, giving the ruling DMK ammunition to question the former’s credibility on women’s issues. The campaign has also been stirred by a row after TVK leader Aadhav Arjuna claimed that acting legend Rajinikanth stayed out of politics because of the DMK pressure.
The bigger picture These episodes show how fast the Tamil Nadu campaign is turning shrill and personality-driven. The BJP may gain visibility through alliances, but the southern state still looks resistant to a saffron breakthrough.
In Kerala, the traditional LDF-UDF duel remains intact, leaving the BJP to chase marginal gains rather than power. In Puducherry, voting the same day, alliance strains are visible on both sides. The UT may be small, but it could still sharpen the national narrative.
The bigger picture is clear: if the BJP holds Assam, cuts deeper into West Bengal and inches forward in the South; it will mark a season of political endorsement for the BJP’s star campaigner PM Modi.
