NEW DELHI: The three northeast states – Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya – that go to polls in February are small in size, each having 60-member state Assemblies. However, political stakes in these elections cannot be measured by their size.
The outcome, which will be known on March 12, will decide the course of politics in India’s border region. It will also impact the elections in six other bigger states to be held later in the year; and set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Development push
The BJP’s special focus on India’s northeast can be understood from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s development push for the region and also from the presence of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), a local version of the saffron party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the Centre.
Distinct socio-political culture and aspirations in the northeast warranted something like NEDA, of which the BJP is a part along with regional parties. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, whose switch from the Congress in 2015 changed the BJP’s fortunes in the northeast, heads the NEDA.
The BJP has also benefited from the traditional sentiment among northeastern parties to align with those in power at the Centre, where the saffron party has been ruling uninterrupted since 2014.
This has helped the BJP grow in the region where defections have started after the Election Commission of India announced the poll schedule.
Change in situation
The situation is fast changing in the BJP-ruled Tripura, where it ended the Left regime of 25 years in the 2018 elections. The indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) has announced to snap ties with the BJP, and the tribal ally is in talks with the newlyformed TIPRA Motha, led by royal scion Pradyot Kishore Debbarma, who seeks a separate state called Greater Tipraland.
The TIPRA Motha swept the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council polls in April 2021 and, thus, cannot be taken lightly. Led by Chief Minister Manik Saha, the BJP is trying hard to retain Tripura. On the other hand, the Congress and the Left are scrambling to regain relevance. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is also trying to prove that its influence goes beyond the eastern state by contesting the elections in the state.
No pre-poll alliance
In Meghalaya, the BJP will not have any pre-poll alliance with the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) battling allegations of corruption. Chief Minister Conrad Sangma has announced that the NPP would go solo.
For the Congress, which had emerged as the single largest party in 2018 elections, it is an existential battle. The BJP, with two MLAs, supported the NPP to form the Government. The Congress has suffered massive damages in terms of an exodus of its MLAs, primarily to the TMC.
However, in Nagaland, the BJP will continue to have its alliance with the ruling Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP). Here, too, the Congress, once a force to reckon with, has almost been wiped out. Meanwhile, As a matter of routine, indigenous groups in Nagaland have threatened to boycott the polls.
