Blitz Bureau
NEW DELHI: Recent US intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz any time soon because its grip on the world’s most vital oil artery provides the only real leverage it has over the United States, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
The reports also provide the latest indication that the war, intended to eradicate Iran’s military strength, may actually increase its regional sway by showing Tehran’s ability to threaten the key waterway.
Trump has sought to downplay the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of the world’s oil trade. On April 3, he appeared to suggest that he could order US forces to reopen the passage.
But analysts have long warned that trying to use force against Iran, which controls one side of the strait, could prove costly and draw the US into a protracted ground war. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has used various tactics to make commercial transit through the waterway too dangerous or uninsurable since Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched their war.
From attacking civilian vessels and releasing mines to demanding passage fees, Iran has effectively blocked traffic through the strait, sending world oil prices soaring to multi-year highs and causing fuel shortages in countries reliant on Gulf oil and gas. Rising energy costs risk fueling inflation in the US, posing a political liability for Trump. Iran, the recent intelligence reports warn, is unlikely to surrender that leverage any time soon.
