A series of political developments over the past few weeks has signi¿- cantly altered the arithmetic of Parliament, placing Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA in a much stronger position. With splits and rebellions in the Aam Aadmi Party, Trinamool Congress and, of late, the Shiv Sena (UBT); the ruling alliance is moving closer to the commanding numbers that can reshape the legislative landscape of the country.
The ¿rst major boost came from the AAP’s dramatic implosion in the Rajya Sabha. Seven of its MPs crossed over to the BJP, sharply reducing the party’s presence in the Upper House and pushing the NDA’s tally signi¿cantly upward. The move lifted the alliance’s strength in the Rajya Sabha to 148, giving it an unprecedented leverage in a House where governments have traditionally struggled for numbers.
Renewed momentum
The momentum picked up further. Mamata Banerjee’ humiliating defeat in West Bengal triggered a rebellion within her TMC, with 20 out of its 28 MPs in the Lok Sabha breaking away from the party and forming a separate bloc. Media reports suggest that their oႈcial extension of support to the NDA is only a matter of time.
The picture is even more encouraging for the ruling alliance in the Rajya Sabha. Following the latest biennial elections, the NDA won 19 of the 26 seats at stake, bringing it closer to the two-thirds threshold in the Upper House
In Maharashtra, a fresh split in the Shiv Sena (UBT) has fuelled hopes of additional gains for the NDA. Six MPs from nine of the Uddhav Thackeray camp have crossed over to the Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction boosting the NDA strength further.
The signi¿cance of these developments lies in the numbers. The NDA currently has roughly 293 members in the Lok Sabha. A two-thirds majority in the eႇective House strength would require around 360 members. While the alliance is still short of that mark, potential support from TMC rebels and further gains from Opposition ranks could push its tally beyond 310, substantially narrowing the gap.
The picture is even more encouraging for the ruling alliance in the Rajya Sabha. Following the latest biennial elections, the NDA won 19 of the 26 seats at stake, bringing it closer to the two-thirds threshold in the Upper House. If the current trend of realignment continues, the alliance could soon enjoy a level of parliamentary comfort unseen since the early years of the BJP’s rise.
PM Modi’s appeal
For the BJP, the emerging arithmetic is being viewed as a validation of PM Modi’s continuing political appeal and the NDA’s ability to attract support beyond its traditional base.
As Opposition parties wrestle with internal divisions and leadership issues, the ruling alliance ¿nds itself in an increasingly advantageous position.
The immediate result is not merely stronger numbers. It is the prospect of a more decisive Government, armed with greater legislative Àexibility and growing con¿dence as it approaches the next phase of its political journey.
