Blitz Bureau
NEW DELHI: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on July 17 retained India’s GDP forecast at 7 per cent for fiscal year 2024-25. This is at par with International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) projection of 7 per cent, but lowers than the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate of 7.2 per cent.
“India’s industrial sector is projected to grow robustly, driven by manufacturing and strong demand in construction. Agriculture is expected to rebound amid forecasts for an above-normal monsoon, while investment demand remains strong, led by public investment,” the multilateral agency said in the latest edition of Asian Development Outlook. It has also maintained its growth forecast at 7.2 per cent for fiscal year 2025-26.
The IMF said in the latest update of its World Economic Outlook (WEO) that it raised the country’s growth forecast for the current year by 20 bps to 7 per cent. The agency said the forecast for growth in emerging markets and developing economies is revised upward; the projected increase is powered by stronger activity in Asia, particularly China and India. “The forecast for growth in India has been revised upward to 7 per cent this year, with the change reflecting carry over from upward revisions to growth in 2023 and improved prospects for private consumption, particularly in rural areas,” the agency said.
Meanwhile, ADB said that services continued to expand robustly in Q4 of FY2023, and the forward-looking services PMI is well above its long-term average. Industry is also expected to grow robustly, driven by manufacturing and strong demand for construction led by housing. “After muted growth in FY23, a rebound in agriculture is expected given the above-normal monsoon projections. This is notwithstanding the slower advance of the monsoon in June. A rebound in agriculture will be important to sustain growth momentum in rural areas,” the agency said.
