India is set to increase installed generation capacity from non fossil sources to 500 GW by 2030

India is actively pursuing the non-fossil capacity addition to 500 GW by 2030 from the present level of 172.5 GW comprising 67 GW solar, 43 GW wind, 51 GW large hydro and small hydro and 11 GW bio. Of the proposed capacity addition, projects of 66 GW are under various stages of construction or near completion while projects with capacity of 45 GW are in the tender state in which bidding has started by the Centre or by the state. From 172.5 GW installed, almost 284 GW RE capacity has been either installed or planned, said the ministry of new and renewable energy (MNRE) secretary Bhupinder Bhalla who was speaking at the sidelines of the G20 3rd Energy Transitions Working Group meeting here in Mumbai on Wednesday. ‘’These are concrete projects. About 110 GW of projects are under tender stage. We have given the commitment internationally of achieving 50% of the installed electricity capacity by 2030 from non fossil fuels include RE and nuclear. But nuclear power is a very small component as we estimate about 20 GW will be added by 2030,’’ he added.

‘’PM has set a target of 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030. As far as MNRE is concerned we are targeting 500 GW of which we have to achieve 480 GW excluding 20 GW of nuclear power by 2030. We are currently at 284 GW and it needs to be increased to 480 GW so we have to find projects and add them, start the process and award and complete and commission them by 2030. Seven years is the target. We feel it is possible. For us adding that 200 GW that’s about 30 GW minimum we should aim at 40 or 50 GW we are aiming for a process where we add 50 GW per year. Target is to add 50 GW annually. Minimum is 500 GW that is the benchmark,’’ said Bhalla.

‘’We have taken several steps including some new things. We have announced a bidding trajectory of 50 GW per year from now (2023-24) to 2027-28 because if you bid in 2027-28 it takes two years to complete. After that we will start bidding after that PM may set a new target. For 2030 we have bidding of 50 GW per year. We have standard guidelines while RE framework in India is very robust as we are not funding projects we are only putting a framework, bidding guidelines, private sector comes and bids for them, they invest, commission, they quote the tariff in the beginning and then they get that tariff for 20-25 years. It’s the private sector which does the investment. MNRE is laying down framework guidelines and addressing the issues faced by the developers,’’ noted Balla.

‘’Second important aspect is land as its availability is an increasing issue for large projects. We have started making state wise RE plans and working with states, you look at our assessment where the projects to be developed, renewable power obligation (RPO) is there which every discom (distribution company) and procurer has to meet. From that emanates the demand which will come from discoms and other agencies. There is a trajectory of RPO which is in place and for the current year it is 27.3% and by 2030 this will rise to 43%. That is a gradual increase; it is the trajectory. That has been calculated from the 500 GW point of view. We want all states and distribution companies (discoms) to comply with that. Tariff is fixed project wise but the RPO which has been decided nationally will become the base. The state electricity regulatory commissions will align with it. If SERC has to implement national RPO the. They will have to adjust it somewhere,’’ said the secretary.

According to Bhalla, the States will have to decide where the RE projects will be developed and how much land will be required and its availability. ‘’We want states to work RE plans based on the land availability as it cannot be blind folded. It can be waste land and need not be habitation where people are residing. Take areas which are available including government and private. We are confident that if we do disaggregate analysis then the developers will on their own go and work with local or district administration or with private owners. We are not saying the state should but asking them to identify the lands,’’ he said.

‘’Wind is also important. We are aiming solar capacity addition to 272 to 290 GW by 2030 from the present level of 67 GW and to 100-120 GW by 2030 from the present 43 GW and the large hydro to 20-30 GW as it needs more time,’’ said Bhalla.

‘’In wind, we want to start with offshore wind projects. We had come out with a strategy paper in June 2022 and on that we had laid down how we have to start the process. We are working on the first model wherein we are pursuing the offshore wind projects of 1 GW in Gujarat and 2 GW in Tamil Nadu. We estimate the potential of 70 GW in these two states. So there is huge potential. We have not yet made projections about the remaining coastline. In Gujarat and TN, areas and blocks have been defined and identified. In Gujarat, detailed measurements of wind speed have been done. Our efforts are to give short viability gap funding for these two projects and for that we will soon approach the finance ministry. Tenders will be issued for these two projects in the next two months. These 3 GW should start power generation by 2030. We will start the process for other projects also,’’ said Bhalla. He clarified that these projects are being developed without viability gap funding.

Bhalla pointed out that offshore wind projects need a detailed study on the ground and it takes nearly 3 years as a lot of investment is needed. ‘’Huge investment is needed for offshore wind projects which is about Rs 16 to 20 crore per mw against Rs 6 crore per mw for onshore wind projects. It is almost two to three times more expensive. There is a longer time required. We will start with non viability gap funding projects also. We can do a lot in the next 10-15 years,’’ he said.

On battery storage, it is important to note as the share of RE will increase in the power mix for the grid stability it is important to have some kind of storage as the solar produces in day time while wind during evening.If there will be hybrid the balance can be achieved. It is very important to build storage capacity, MNRE has not done enough but we are starting it.

‘’The ministry of power is encouraging pump hydro storage which can be immediately implemented. MoP came out with the policy. We feel that battery storage is important as there is no option but to go for it. But grid level battery storage is needed, not of EV battery storage. Charging efficiency that really matters. The Central Electricity Authority has given an estimate that India will need about 200 GW hours of battery storage by 2030. If we have a 40 GW of battery capacity for 5 hours that. Means we will need a battery capacity of 200 GW hour by 2030. We do not need more than that. However, the battery cost is quite high which is Rs 10 per unit compared to Rs 2.40 per unit of solar and Rs 2.70 per unit of wind. As a package it may cost Rs 3 or 3.30 per unit depending on the capacity. There may be some impact on tariff but nothing which is not manageable. We will prefer pump storage and then battery. We have no option but to start. We want to start production linked incentives (PLI) for battery storage. We are drafting a plan so that batteries can be manufactured in India.

‘’50 GW will be bidded through four agencies then the private developers can bid and develop projects. Since bidding for 50 GW is done, the projects will come up in two years of which wind will be 10 GW. During 2022-23 we have added 2.2 GW and in 2023-24 we hope to add 5.5 GW which will be almost a record capacity. In wind manufacturing, 15 GW manufacturing capacity per year is already there, we ill need 10-15 GW per year. Of the present capacity a lot of export is done. In solar the manufacturing capacity is 22.5 GW per annum already. Of which 2-3 GW is the latest while most of the remaining one is obsolete,’’ said Bhalla.

Bhalla said the cell has to be imported. For solar manufacturing the MNRE has taken several steps including PLI. We had a tranche one of Rs 450 crore and second of Rs 19,000 crore.

‘’During tranch one we have allotted for fully integrated battery manufacturing plants of 8.7 GW and they will be ready by November-December 2024. In tranche 2 we have allotted battery manufacturing plants of 39.6 GW which will be operational by April 2026. By 2026, the country will have a battery manufacturing capacity of 70 GW per annum. Of the 39.6 GW, 15.4 GW will be fully integrated, 16.8 GW wafer 2 module and 7.4 GW of cell II module. In addition 3 GW of linked manufacturing capacity thereby the total battery manufacturing capacity of 73 GW per annum will be put in place by 2026,’’he added.

In addition people are developing larger capacity plants so our estimate is we will reach 90 to 100 GW of manufacturing capacity per annum by 2026. This is a big number. We are going to export as we will be a significant exporter as our requirement will be for 30 GW, 40 GW or 50 GW annually. The proposed manufacturing capacity will be competitive as they will increasingly become efficient. We will become a significant exporter.

As far as the transmission capacity addition to evacuate power generated through non fossil sources, Bhalla said We have worked with states to find out where the additional capacity is needed. Based on the gaps, the transmission plan has been worked out by the ministry of power to cater 537 GW by 2030. The transmission capacity addition is done on a commercial basis. GoI will tell PGCIL to develop and recover the cost, said Bhalla.