Onkareshwar Pandey
SHEIKH Hasina has gone, Khaleda Zia is out of prison, and Parliament has been dissolved. The 15-year regime in Bangladesh ended in less than five weeks. As Lenin once famously said: “There are decades where nothing happens, and then there are weeks when decades happen.”
Moving forward, Bangladesh must act constitutionally, consultatively, and inclusively, ensuring that the rule of law remains sacrosanct. The challenge is immense: to fix deep-rooted systemic problems, establish a new reliable, sustainable, and transparent system, and prioritise the concerns and aspirations of its long-suffering people. Every section of society must be kept safe and secure to create a functional, sustainable, and democratic future of a better and brighter Bangladesh. Security of the minorities is must.
The mass uprising by students against job quotas, which started in July, turned violent following Government crackdown and attacks by the ruling party-linked groups. The protests escalated with widespread demands for change despite the Supreme Court scrapping the quota system. The Government’s severe response, including curfews, internet blackouts, and shoot-at-sight orders, led to deadly clashes, resulting in over 400 deaths by August 6. The unrest could not save the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League Government.
Ending her 15-year second stint in power, Hasina fled the country. Hasina had ruled for 20 of the last 30 years, inheriting the political movement from her father, who was assassinated along with most of his family members in a 1975 coup. Her political journey, marked by trauma and strategic diplomatic balancing, saw her becoming the Prime Minister after a decades-long power struggle with former PM Khaleda Zia, chief of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
Hasina often accused the BNP of courting hardline extremists, branding it a terrorist party, while Zia’s BNP claimed the Awami League used oppressive tactics to retain power. This rivalry polarised Bangladesh. Hasina’s tenure faced mounting criticism over democratic freedoms and press suppression, with allegations of harsh measures to stifle dissent, forced disappearances, and limited space for democratic discourse.
The unrest traces back to a 2011 constitutional amendment removing neutral caretaker governments, deemed essential by the Opposition for fair elections. Hasina’s multiple controversial victories, including the 2014 and 2018 elections, were marred by allegations of rigging and Opposition crackdowns. The political landscape – dominated by a oneparty system without credible national elections for a decade – led to a lack of accountability and over-regulation, failing to provide necessary skills and jobs, resulting in widespread corruption and misuse of resources.
Public sector allocations for health and education were alarmingly low, with actual public expenditure for social safety net programmes at just 1.32 pc of the GDP in FY2025. Economic growth did not translate into sufficient job creation. Despite a 7.2 pc GDP growth in 2022, wealth disparities widened, with the wealthiest 10 per cent controlling 41 per cent of income. Rampant corruption, cronyism, massive bank loan defaults, and poor governance led to unequal distribution of economic opportunities and wealth.
Unprecedented swoop
Following a massive Opposition rally last October, an unprecedented crackdown saw over 25,000 BNP members arrested, thousands on the run, and at least five members dying in prison before the January 2024 elections. The BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami were banned, resulting in at least 20 deaths and nearly 300 buses being torched. Human Rights Watch estimated that at least 10,000 Opposition supporters had been arrested since the October 28, 2023 rally.
Hasina’s fourth consecutive term, secured through a controversial January 2024 election, was marred by allegations of rigging and political suppression. The US and the UK condemned the election, stating it was neither free nor fair and expressing concern over the arrests of Opposition members and reports of electoral irregularities. Hasina’s ‘political stability’ turned into a one-party system without credible national elections for over a decade, resulting in a lack of accountability in every sphere of public services.
On July 1 this year, Bangladeshi students launched mass protests against job quotas that reserved one-third of civil service posts for veterans’ descendants. Unemployment was a significant factor behind the current uprising, with nearly 32 million young people out of work or education in a population of 170 million. Unemployment among educated youth is alarmingly high.
The denouement
Finally, after weeks of protests, 76-yearold Hasina resigned on August 5 and fled the country. Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman announced her resignation and assured early formation of an interim government. The current unrest is likely to continue until free and fair elections are held. The interim government will have the immediate task of controlling the violence, which is now spreading and turning anti-minorities.
India will have to remain vigilant as it shares long porous borders with Bangladesh. The resurgence of anti-India sentiments and Islamic fundamentalism could significantly hinder Bangladesh’s progress and regional stability.
