Blitz Bureau
NEW DELHI: The African Union (AU) and its partners have warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict poses a “serious risk” to African economies.
In a joint policy brief issued April 4, the AU, the United Nations (UN) Economic Commission for Africa, the African Development Bank, and the UN Development Program warned that the longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption on shipping routes, energy, and fertilizer supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across Africa.
With most African countries still growing at rates below the pre-COVID time, the brief projected a loss in output growth of 0.2 percentage points on Africa’s gross domestic product for 2026 if the conflict exceeds six months.
The organizations stressed that the conflict, which has already triggered a trade shock, could quickly become “a cost-of-living crisis” through higher fuel and food prices. Rising shipping costs, insurance premiums, exchange rate pressures, and tighter fiscal conditions could further compound the crisis, with vulnerable households bearing the heaviest burden.
The Middle East accounts for 15.8 per cent of Africa’s imports and 10.9 per cent of exports, which highlights the critical implications of the current situation for African economies, according to the brief.
Fertilizer shortage
Highlighting that the fertilizer channel may prove more consequential than oil shocks for some countries, the brief noted that disruptions to Gulf liquid natural gas supply would affect ammonia and urea production, raising fertilizer costs during the crucial March-toMay planting season. It also warned that a wider conflict could intensify competition for influence in Africa, with regional conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Libya already reflecting external sponsorship.
