Blitz Bureau
NEW DELHI: For years the makhana trade has been described as exporting about two-fifths of what India grows. The first year of product-specific customs data says the recorded figure is closer to nine per cent — and that gap is not bad news. It is the measurement finally catching up with the crop.
A Government backgrounder released on 19 August sets out the numbers for India’s fox-nut sector, and one pair of figures in it deserves to be read together rather than separately. India produced 80,590 metric tonnes of makhana in 2025-26 on the Second Advance Estimates. In the same year it exported 7,264.89 metric tonnes of makhana products. That is 9.01 per cent. The same document also carries the long-quoted trade estimate that “about 40 per cent” of output is exported.
Both numbers can be honest at once, and the reason is buried in a single administrative sentence. Until 2025 makhana had no customs code of its own; it moved abroad inside general Harmonized System headings, which meant nobody could say how much of it left the country. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade created a separate code for popped makhana and other makhana products in 2025. The 7,264.89 tonnes is therefore not a collapse in exports. It is the first year anyone has been able to count them. The 40 per cent figure was an estimate made in the absence of data, and it also mixes categories: raw seed loses roughly two-thirds of its weight when it is popped, so comparing a popped-product export tonnage with a raw-crop production tonnage will always flatter the export share downwards.
The counted crop: Popped makhana — the form in which the product is exported, and the one that finally received its own customs code in 2025. Raw seed loses roughly two-thirds of its weight in popping, which is why raw-crop and popped-export tonnages cannot be compared directly.
A crop whose price rose 150 per cent while its volume rose five per cent does not have a demand problem. It has a supply problem — and 1,010 new hectares is the first instalment of the answer.
At a Glance
• Production 2025-26: 80,590 MT (Second Advance Estimates), up from 63,910 MT in 2024-25
• Productivity: 2.34 MT per hectare, up from 2.03
• Bihar’s share: 60,000 MT — 74.5 per cent of national output; 80-85 per cent of global supply
• Recorded exports 2025-26: 7,264.89 MT, value ₹19,296.08 lakh
• Top markets: United States 40%, Canada 20%, UAE 17% — 77% combined
• Unit realisation: Germany $26.0/kg vs United States $19.5/kg
• Scheme outlay: ₹476.03 crore, 2025-26 to 2030-31
• Year one: 1,010 ha added, 89 demonstrations, 8,159 farmers covered
• GI tag: Mithila Makhana
What the new data does allow, for the first time, is a serious look at where the crop earns its money. India’s makhana exports are concentrated in three markets — the United States at 40 per cent, Canada at 20 and the United Arab Emirates at 17, together 77 per cent of the total. Those are also the cheapest markets: unit realisations of $19.5, $15.8 and $13.3 a kilogram respectively. Germany pays $26.0, Nepal $21.6 and Australia $21.0, each on volumes of between one and five per cent. The United Kingdom sits in between, taking a tenth of shipments at about $20 a kilogram. Germany pays a third more per kilogram than the United States for the same product. Three-quarters of the trade goes to the markets that pay least.
The domestic picture explains why exporters have had little reason to chase those premiums. Between FY22 and FY25 makhana production volumes rose only four to five per cent, while the average price moved from about ₹500 a kilogram in 2020-22 to nearly ₹1,250 in 2025 — a rise of 150 per cent. The domestic market grew 17 to 18 per cent a year over 2021-22 to 2024-25 and is projected to reach ₹11,000-12,000 crore by 2029-30. When the home market pays that well and grows that fast, the incentive to certify for Germany is weak. India now eats between 3,000 and 3,500 tonnes of popped makhana a month, rising to about 5,000 in the festival season, and branded FMCG players already take 1,800 to 2,000 tonnes of that.
The supply side is where the state has moved. The National Makhana Board, announced in the 2025-26 Budget, was notified on 14 September 2025 and launched in Bihar the next day; a Central Sector Scheme for the Development of Makhana carries an outlay of ₹476.03 crore for 2025-26 to 2030-31, with ₹30 crore released for 2025-26 and ₹90 crore for 2026-27. In its first year the scheme brought an additional 1,010 hectares under the crop, covered 73 hectares under seed production, ran 89 front-line demonstrations and benefited 8,159 farmers. Yield has responded: national productivity rose from 2.03 tonnes a hectare in 2024-25 to 2.34 in 2025-26, and total output from 63,910 tonnes to 80,590 — a gain of 26.1 per cent in a single season, helped by varieties such as Swarna Vaidehi and Sabour Makhana-1 and by field-system cultivation replacing pond harvesting.
Bihar carries almost all of this. The state produced 60,000 tonnes in 2025-26, 74.5 per cent of the national crop, and supplies an estimated 80 to 85 per cent of world output, concentrated in the Kosi basin districts of Supaul, Saharsa and Madhepura and in the Mithila and Seemanchal belts. Mithila Makhana already holds a Geographical Indication tag, which is the single most useful asset for the premium markets that pay best — a GI is precisely the sort of provenance claim a German or Australian retailer will price.
The constructive next step follows directly from the numbers rather than from any argument about them. Now that a distinct customs code exists, the National Makhana Board can publish destination-wise volume and unit-realisation data every quarter, so exporters can see the price gap the way this backgrounder shows it. Pair that with GI-linked certification support for the Mithila crop and the premium markets stop being a theory. A crop whose price has risen 150 per cent while its volume rose five is a crop with a supply problem, not a demand problem — and the 1,010 hectares added in year one is the beginning of the answer.
