Blitz Bureau
INDIA’S GDP growth is projected to slow sharply to 6.4 per cent in FY25, down from 8.2 percent in FY24, according to the first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO). The slowdown in the first advance estimates highlights a more tempered pace of economic activity and indicates that the economy could grow at the slowest pace in four years.
“Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.4 pc in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.2 pc in Provisional Estimate (PE) of GDP for FY 2023-24. Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7 pc in FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 9.6 pc in FY 2023-24,” said the NSO data.
The projection is even lower than the recent Reserve Bank estimate of 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal year ending March 2025.
The advance estimate, which plays a crucial role in Budget calculations, follows the July-September quarter shocker of 5.4 pc GDP growth. This surprising figure prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to revise its growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 6.6 pc, down from the earlier 7.2 pc.
Real GDP at constant prices is estimated to rise to Rs 184.88 lakh crore in FY25, from Rs 173.82 lakh crore in FY24. Nominal GDP at current prices is projected to grow by 9.7 per cent, reaching Rs 324.11 lakh crore, compared to Rs 295.36 lakh crore last year.
Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow at 6.4 per cent, a deceleration from 7.2 per cent in FY24. Despite the slowdown, key sectors show promise.
Agriculture and allied activities are forecast to grow by 3.8 per cent, up from 1.4 per cent in FY24. The construction sector is projected to expand by 8.6 pc, while financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to grow by 7.3 per cent. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), a key indicator of household spending, is anticipated to grow by 7.3 per cent in FY25, compared to 4.0 pc in FY24. Meanwhile, Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) is estimated to rebound with a growth rate of 4.1 pc, up from 2.5 pc last fiscal.
These estimates highlight that while growth will decelerate, some sectors are likely to remain resilient, offering hope for continued economic activity.
