IT was explicitly written in this column sometime back that Iran was very likely to be drawn into the ongoing military turmoil in West Asia after the terror attack, allegedly by ISIS in Kerman, on the death anniversary of former military and intelligence chief General Qassem Soleimani. However, what is significant is the Iranians struck targets inside the Pakistan territory, which was described by the Iranian authorities as strongholds of Jaishal-Adl, a Sunni terrorist group. A day earlier, Iran had undertaken similar strikes in Iraq and Syria hitting at, what it said, were spy headquarters and terrorist bases.
Reacting rather sharply, Pakistan recalled its Ambassador in Tehran and suspended all high-level bilateral visits which were in the pipeline. The ties between Iran and Pakistan took a new low when Pakistan expelled the Iranian Ambassador in Islamabad and also stated that he will not be allowed to come back. The two countries are clearly engaged in escalation of tension and there are no chances of abatement in the near future.
Irritant in relations
Pakistan’s initial reaction was that the violation of its territory was totally indefensible; such unilateral actions – especially resulting in the loss of innocent lives – may do irreparable harm to bilateral ties. Further, the activity of militant groups on both sides of the border is one of the biggest irritants in the bilateral relationship, and Pakistan and Iran need to address this issue in a mature manner.
Iranian officials had claimed the assailants entered from Pakistan. There were also two attacks last year, apparently originating from Iran, in which several Pakistani troops were killed. China, which enjoys cordial relations with both the countries, has urged “both sides to exercise restraint.”
Interestingly, what added fuel to the fire was Pakistan’s retaliation in targeting the `terrorist’ hideouts inside the Iranian border killing nine persons. Pakistan’s operation, codenamed ‘Marg Bar Sarmachar’, has given some consolation to the Pakistan’s polity and security establishment that it had not caved in to the misadventurism of Iran.
Flight monitoring
Against the backdrop of the escalation of tension in Islamabad-Tehran ties, Pakistan has started strict monitoring of all flights from the West. The Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority is monitoring air activities over the western border and the authorities have been directed to remain alert. Obviously, the country is having an apprehension of a likely onslaught or covert action by Iran.
Iran’s attack inside Pakistani territory, coming at a time when Israel’s war on Gaza could escalate regional tensions, deserved a mature response, according to Mosharraf Zaidi of the Islamabad-based Tabadlab think-tank. Zaidi opined that Pakistan’s response so far is exactly what it should be as the Iranians were looking to provoke an unnecessary reaction. The real risk right now is the wider dangers of Pakistan being drawn into a conflict that it is not a primary actor in and will be distracted further, as claimed by Zaidi.
Another viewpoint, shared by Kamran Bokhari, Senior Director for the Washington, DC-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, is that the escalation may lead to potentially longer-term conflict for Pakistan. After Afghanistan on the West and India on the East, this could possibly open conflict on a third border and Pakistan does not seem to be ready for that. This view does not seem to be wide off the mark.
Long-lasting effect
Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, who is a Director at The Khorasan Diary, a news and research portal which tracks and analyses security issues in the region, expressed surprise at the escalation by Iran despite the continuing security conflict in the Middle East region. He said Iranian actions would have a long-lasting effect and implications on bilateral relations, in the realms of both politics and security.
Further, according to Tipu, by carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, it has given a kind of justification to Pakistan to follow the same path in response to target the sanctuaries of anti-Pakistan militant outfits, which Pakistan considers are based in Iran or even elsewhere. Also, according to some analysts, Pakistan may be seeking “greater alignment” with the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the pretext of Iran’s action. On its part, Tehran sees Pakistan as a pawn in this high-risk brinkmanship with Washington.
Iran’s action against Pakistan could be part of a larger muscle-flexing due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas confrontation. It is also possible due to intensified anti-Iran (also anti-Shia) activities by Jaish-al-Adl. Whatever may be the reason, unless both sides agree to peace and resolve the tension amicably, the region will be fraught with peril threatening peace and adding gunpowder to the inflamed West Asia military conflict.
