The most amazing fact of our General Election is the awesome silence of the voter. A politician or a journalist is more likely to get a smile than information. This magnificent silence has shrouded every single election result in the last half-century, from the shock Opposition upsurge in 1967, to Indira Gandhi’s spectacular mandate in 1971, her miraculous defeat in 1977, or indeed the scale of her return in 1980.
Indian voters enjoy the silence. This is their private space. They protect it. The consequent barometer of uncertainty is reflected in media coverage, where today’s forecast becomes tomorrow’s laugh. The first day of polling in this election generated a sudden flurry of questions when voting percentages dropped. Was this apathy towards Government? Then reality check began to creep in. No one quite knew whose vote had disappeared.
Democracy punishes those who take it for granted. It is harsh on pride, hubris or pompous aspiration with remarkable consistency. Every general election throws up evidence of amateurish MPs and candidates who believe that they are winning because of some wondrous trait in their character or intellect
Wayanad turnout
Take Wayanad, the most high-profile constituency in the South. When Rahul Gandhi abandoned Amethi in 2019 this is where he found refuge, in a Muslim League-dominated sanctuary in Kerala. There was visible excitement in the local electorate. The turnout in 2019 was a huge 80.33 per cent; Rahul Gandhi’s margin of victory over 400,000. This time? The turnout dropped by 7 per cent to 73.48 per cent. Had the Muslim League’s enthusiasm evaporated after Congress tried to screen its alliance by prohibiting the display of League flags in its rallies? In 2019, Communists were sympathetic to Rahul Gandhi and their nominee in Wayanad put up token resistance. This time their candidate is Annie Raja, wife of Communist Party of India (CPI) chief D Raja. This means that the Left vote must have polled in higher numbers. Whose vote polled in lower numbers? We will know on June 4. And if this is what transpires in Wayanad, it will be equally true of all constituencies across the innumerable corners of our country. Of course, the butterflies that roost in every politician’s stomach at election time will cause indigestion, but that comes with the menu.
Congress worried
Some things we know, because political parties have told us. In Kerala the Left Democratic Front (LDF) has been working hard to take seats back from Congress. What is already visible is that the Left vote will rise. Congress leaders are so worried that they have accused Marxists of being in collusion with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a high crime in their law book. But from an objective perch this is rational. Marxists have been annihilated in Bengal, with little chance of recovery in this election. They are not going to surrender their only remaining bastion without a struggle.
My suggestion to election watchers is to whip out their mobile phones and take pictures of the male and female queues outside the booths. If the figures are broadly even, then Prime Minister Narendra Modi has an advantage since his percentage of support among women is higher. Extend that rule to its variables, and a picture will become clearer; where women vote in higher numbers the advantage will be greater.
Women remain Prime Minister Modi’s most ardent loyalists for the most sensible of reasons: food in their kitchen, homes which they can own, medicine for their family, the reduction of poverty. Women are the decisive factor of the 2024 General Election.
Chandrababu’s freebies
The reviving warhorse of Andhra Pradesh, N Chandrababu Naidu, knows this, not least because four decades ago his father-in-law NT Rama Rao identified the woman as his catalyst of change in stagnant Andhra Pradesh.
Andhra has elections for the Assembly along with the Lok Sabha. In the free market of freebies, Naidu has announced free bus rides for women; three gas cylinders for every household; an annual Rs 20,000 scholarship for every schoolchild; and a subsidy of Rs 20,000 for farmers. You can gauge the impact from the rattle among opponents. His bête noire YS Jagan Mohan Reddy dismisses these gratuities as illusory. Where will the money come from? Easy to answer. Exactly from where Jagan Reddy got the money for his schemes. The state exchequer.
